SO, WHAT NEXT AFTER HS2?

No longer ‘spades in the ground’. HS2, or High Speed 2, is a high-speed railway line that was supposed to connect London to Birmingham and then extend to Manchester and Leeds in the north of England. In 2012 it was estimated that the full cost would be £32 billion but current estimates show it has escalated to over £100 billion. The project has been plagued by delays and mismanagement, with the soil between London and Birmingham turning out to be softer than expected, which held up tunnelling. There were costs to compulsory purchase land for the project and planning issues with environmental protests against the project adding delays. Additionally, land was more expensive to buy than anticipated. It is claimed that circumstances had changed since the pandemic and the war in Ukraine has also increased costs for raw materials and labour needed for the project.

According to BBC News the Department for Transport (DfT) and HS2 Ltd were criticised by the National Audit Office (NAO) for not allowing for all uncertainties when estimating initial costs. This led to the project being over budget and behind schedule. The NAO report said that “significant challenges to completing the programme and delivering value for taxpayers and shareholders remain” .

At the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester on the 4^th October 2023, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak proclaimed that the Birmingham to Manchester  leg of HS2 would be scrapped. Instead, Rishi Sunak promised that the £36 billion previously ring-fenced for a high-speed rail line from London to Manchester would be allocated to other infrastructure projects to provide better transport links across the north of England The decision has been met with mixed reactions from the public. Most question the judgement of doing this now after so much money has already been spent and the disruption it has caused for those people in the line of the track who are now concerned where this will leave them.

The mismanagement of HS2 highlights how large-scale infrastructure projects can veer off track. It is important to learn from this experience so that similar mistakes can be avoided with future projects. One lesson is that initial cost estimates should consider all uncertainties. Another lesson is that there should be transparency around costs and completion dates as a project develops.

The HS2 phase one will still be delivered between Birmingham and Euston in central London, but the government claim that the rest of the money will be spent on improving road, rail, and bus connections in the North . However, many are sceptical about this and distrust the government to keep its promises after the HS2 debacle. The government has pledged to invest in hundreds of transport projects across the country, which will deliver more buses, reopen railway stations, and ensure major funding for new and improved roads. Many of these are old commitments that predate the decision to scrap HS2.

Investing in different types of transport infrastructure has its benefits and drawbacks. For example, investing in roads can improve connectivity between towns and cities but can also lead to increased traffic congestion. Investing in railways can reduce congestion on roads but can also be expensive. Investing in buses can provide affordable transport options but may not be as fast as other modes of transport. It is important to consider these factors when deciding how best to allocate funds for transport infrastructure. One thing is certain after this decision has been taken is that rail capacity will not receive the required investment and this will be damaging for future generations. Many of the lines needed to carry freight and passengers will not be built leaving those lines congested and more traffic on the road networks also congested.

Falling passenger numbers was given as one excuse why the government chose to scrap HS2 along with spiralling costs for the project. However, this is smoke and mirrors and does not stand up to scrutiny since numbers on transport have been affected by the pandemic and rail strikes for over a year with many cancellations of trains on the rail network. Something the government has failed to tackle.

In conclusion, HS2 went wrong due to mismanagement and a lack of transparency around costs and completion dates. Lessons can be learned from this experience so that similar mistakes can be avoided in future projects. It is claimed by government that the decision to allocate £36 billion previously ring-fenced for HS2 to infrastructure projects across the north of England will provide better transport links across the region. However, many people are sceptical and as one put it after this announcement ‘Pigs might fly’. So there is little trust right now. Investing in different types of transport infrastructure has its benefits and drawbacks, so it is important to consider these factors when deciding how best to allocate funds. Communication, critical paths, budgetary control and value for money have to be managed far more carefully than this one if that public trust is to be regained. Meanwhile, the North has run out of track and will have to put up with Victorian infrastructure and poor railway services from underperforming franchise rail companies.

Listen to this week’s Chain Reaction News to find out more about why the decision has been taken now and what it means for future transport project commitments as well as for freight using ageing and congested UK rail infrastructure.