What will your Supply Chain look like after BREXIT?

What will your Supply Chain look like after BREXIT?

 

The first quarter GDP figure for the UK stood at 0.3% growth. This compares to 0.7% growth in the last quarter of 2016. The Bank of England had expected the figure to be 0.6% so the fall is significant. In France growth also stood at 0.3% while Spain stood at 0.8% both above forecast, whereas the US came in below forecast at 0.7%. It is likely that there are stormy waters ahead according to most economic forecasts. Disruption is a reality for modern business in the normal course of operating. However, the UK has added to its own uncertainties and increased risk following the BREXIT vote in June 2016. Here I outline some of the factors that will add to uncertainty in the months ahead and identify some likely supply chain winners and losers.

Higher inflation is expected at 3% or above by the end of 2017 (Bank of England forecast 2% for 2017), the volatility of UK currency and the decline in consumer purchasing will all have an impact on the British Economy in the months ahead. The period of instability is likely to last for the medium term as the trade terms of BREXIT are negotiated between the current EU members, the rest of the world and the United Kingdom. Nevertheless, some sectors are doing better than others so the picture is not necessarily negative. In manufacturing, textiles, machinery, transport, wood and pulp as well as electronics and other manufacturing the UK is doing relatively well. Food and drink shows a very small decline while other categories including rubber and plastics, electrical equipment and metals show larger falls. The biggest fall is in pharmaceuticals approaching -8%. The key for longer term prosperity will be how the mix and balance of exports and imports change the make-up of UK GDP. Sectors selling more than 30% of their output in export markets have seen a 2.6% increase in growth in the first quarter of 2017. These sectors include transport and machinery. This is not all due to a weakening pound since BREXIT. It is also due to an increase in world-wide market activity in the first quarter of 2017.

Between January 2017 and February 2017, export prices decreased by 0.5% and import prices decreased by 0.9%, with the value of sterling increasing by 0.8% in February 2017 compared with the January 2017 average. However, it remains 10.4% lower when compared with February 2016. (Source: ONS data).

In 2015, the UK recorded the largest current account deficit among the G7 economies at 5.4% of GDP. UK exports grew faster than world exports in 2015, for the first time since 2006. Within this the UK has seen increased trade activity in goods with non-EU countries, with their share exceeding that of EU countries in the last four years. Trade with non-EU countries continues to grow as a proportion of the total. The recent fall in the pound has seen some export categories increase trade while import costs have risen. There has been a slight rally in the pound against the dollar and the Euro since the announcement of a General Election on 8th June 2017. Most commentators opine this is due to the removal of some uncertainty regarding BREXIT. Although, the initial meeting between Prime Minister May and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at Downing Street did not go smoothly according to reports. It is unlikely to be plain sailing. It will be interesting to see what happens if there is a hung Parliament with no overall majority for any single party. Most people think this unlikely but who knows, opinion polls do not have a good track record when it comes to predicting the British electorate and choices they make. Opinion polls for BREXIT were not a good indicator for what actually happened. More indecision by any Government would increase uncertainty and risk for the British economy.

Table 1 shows the monthly change in volumes by category for imports and exports for both EU and Non EU countries. It shows that most export categories moved upwards apart from semi-manufactures and food to the EU. Consumer goods other than cars as well as chemicals were major exports to the rest of the worlds. Basic material imports with the EU fell while they increased by  23.4% with the rest of the world. It is possible that firms are already increasing forward purchasing to offset currency volatility but the data set is too limited to be sure. Other consumer goods from the rest of the world fell by 11.1%. Car imports rose by 14.4% from the rest of the world and by 2.2% with the EU.

Table 1: Shows Monthly change1 in goods commodity volume, February 2017
EU countries Exports % change Imports % change Non-EU countries Exports % change Imports % change
Food, beverages and tobacco 0.9 0.0 Food, beverages and tobacco 0.9 0.9
Basic materials 1.2 -3.2 Basic materials -7.3 23.4
Semi-manufactured goods; of which -0.9 0.0 Semi-manufactured goods; of which 0.0 -2.0
   Chemicals -4.3 -3.3    Chemicals 5.0 -9.8
Finished manufactured goods; of which 1.6 4.7 Finished manufactured goods; of which 1.0 -2.8
   Cars 2.9 2.4    Cars -7.4 14.4
   Consumer goods other than cars -1.6 4.0    Consumer goods other than cars 12.0 -11.1
   Intermediate goods -0.9 5.5    Intermediate goods 5.8 0.0
   Capital goods 1.7 0.0    Capital goods 1.0 -0.9
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes:
1. Monthly change is February 2017 compared with January 2017.

There will likely be a turbulent few years as trade terms across categories and countries change as result of the complexity of negotiations. Supply chains will need to readjust to new trade patterns, sourcing trends and shifting economics. This is no time for complacency. If you want to stay ahead of the curve your supply chain will need to be agile.

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April is the cruellest month – what about May and June?

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“April is the cruellest month” said T.S.Eliot. For me it is. As we have a cold snap I engage in that very British concern of talking about the weather with anyone who will listen. In a broader sense all of us are concerned with climate and particularly the impact that human activity has upon our environment. This week as British politicians prepare for a general election ripped untimely from the womb of Westminster, ignoring the procedure established to prevent such a caesarean breach, we witness the devious political trickery of delaying bad news that might contaminate or infect the chances of winning. It is sanitation, redaction, or plain old whitewash removing any damaging ideas to accommodate the vanity of political self-interest. The diesel car scrappage scheme raised its ugly head like Leviathan rising from the sea to create impending disaster for the party of power. It is best now to deviate, to consider the distant problems of rogue states and take the public gaze there. Meanwhile Alchemists gather in party HQs to forge base ideas on the philosopher’s stone in preparation for publication. Key phrases will be needed to text and tweet! “Brexit means …”, what does it mean? New terms imported from former colonies create colour attacking opposition leaders such as ‘Mugwump’ although I would prefer to see ‘Boris and the Wagmump’ as an addition to children’s literature.

We have now reached that time when general elections induce a news freeze for fear of damage to prospective candidates including seasoned veterans like May (note also the month after April and the one before June). Rather like an episode of BBC Radio 4’s “Just a Minute” there must be no hesitation, deviation or repetition. But this is not “Just a Minute”, it is – Wait a minute, repetition is allowed because that provides opportunity for the Prime Minister and Government Ministers to repeat endlessly what we might not have already grasped – “Brexit means Brexit”. Although no one appears to know what this means, least of all those seated around the cauldron of power, or do they know more than they wish to disclose? Is the economy about to implode? Is this why the incumbent ruling party have pulled the election card early? Well, we may not know the answer to that last question for a year or two. However, what you can be sure to observe in the next few weeks, if you can stay awake long enough to listen carefully, to the endless political debates, is devious manoeuvring. There will certainly be silence at times, mostly after difficult questions get asked. The genesis of new but soon to be broken promises will arrive on a daily basis. Political polls will inevitably be wrong as no one really understands just how accurate they are. Statistical forecasting error appears to be a concept too far for most of the political commentators. Indeed fine margins make forecasts look silly mainly because forecasts are simply that, a forecast. It is not an actual result. So even if accurate, they will be wrong. Political candidates and parties would do well to remember this notion of standard error when weighing up their odds. So too, would political commentators after all they are supposed to be providing the public with informed opinion.

Personally, I look forward to summer. Warmer weather, election ended, long-term happiness beckons, in the knowledge that politicians will look after all my future needs, only a forecast, now that they themselves feel secure in their own jobs for another five, or should that be four, or three, or even two years?

After the 2010 general election, the Cameron coalition government enacted the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 which set fixed term parliaments every five years. The last general election was held on 7 May 2015, and the next due on the first Thursday in May 2020.” Of course we now have one on 8th June 2017 as 2/3rds of Members of Parliament voted to support the call by Prime Minister May on 18th April 2017 (no April fool!).

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UK Inflation rises rapidly as the Consumer Price Index published today shows. CPI moved upward to 1% year on year from the August year on year figure of 0.6%. There are two main reasons underlying the upward trend. First, clothing prices have increased significantly after a period of flat-lining or decline. Second, transport costs are moving up owing to a decline in the GB pound against the US dollar impacting oil prices. Transport is the more worrying trend as this feeds into all consumer goods. Suppliers and retailers will want to pass on these costs to maintain their own profit margins.

Inflationary pressure

These inflationary pressures are likely to remain as the UK economy enters 2017. There is likely to be a call for increases in wage rates particularly by those in sectors where wages have been stagnant since the financial crash in 2008. Christmas may be more expensive for consumers this year. It might be time to reach for those personal flotation devices like the money you keep under the mattress to get those presents this year.

outerwear
Photograph by Joe Parks

Women’s outerwear contributed price rises of 6.0% between August and September 2016, compared with a rise of just 3.3% a year ago. This is much higher than usual and it is not known how much is directly attributable to Brexit and the depreciation of sterling. What is clearer is that the depreciation in sterling is likely to increase the cost of importing goods. It is also now more expensive than a year ago to outsource production which may have a positive effect on UK manufacturing.

Figure 1 Year on Year Change in Consumer price Index by Category

figure-1-contributions-to-the-cpi-12-month-rate-september-2015-and-september-2016

Source: CSO

Conclusions

It will be interesting to observe the interplay between inflation and exchange rates in the coming months. This will determine the impact on industry cost structures in the year ahead. The balancing act of how these changes impact on the economy as a whole will become clearer. Claims that the lower exchange rate will help exports have to be balanced against claims that input costs rise as imported goods become more expensive. A critical marker will be the impact on consumer spending. If consumer confidence declines then so too will economic growth fueled by that spending. Higher inflation will influence delayed expenditure on higher priced goods and less disposable income for discretionary goods such as restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture as well as some clothing categories.

 

 

Why your clothes may cost more in the UK in 2017 – Will profits fall as prices rise?

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When you walk down the High Street if you were to look at labels inside many of the clothes you buy you will see China, Bangladesh and Turkey prominent among others. Between them these three countries supply about 50 per cent of your clothing on the UK High Street, if not more. Prices have been low for the past decade and many retail brands have made substantial profits by sourcing product from these countries. Wage costs have increased in China and put pressure to increase prices charged to European and US Retailers. China itself has sought ways to lower its own cost base by managing complex supply chains with other countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam where labour costs are lower.  Bangladesh too has pushed up wage rates although they remain very low. Turkey pays higher wage rates than either of these two countries already but its quality and proximity to Europe with faster supply times keeps it competitive.

However, now it is not just labour costs but worsening exchange rates on imports that will impact the cost and of course push up the prices you pay at the checkout together with inflationary pressure. In future as BREXIT becomes a reality new tariffs may kick in too. The inflation rate measured by the Consumer price Index (CPI) stood at 0.6 per cent in the year to August 2016. The inflation rate for clothing was negative at 1.2 per cent. Is this about to change too, as China, Bangladesh and Turkey seek higher prices for their goods and the exchange rate against world currencies falls?

Figure 1 Consumer Price Index (CPI)

figure-b-cpi-12-month-inflation-rate-for-the-last-10-years-august-2006-to-august-2016

Source: CSO, 2016

As for the GB Pound against the Chinese Yuan that has fallen to 8.21 from a high of 10 just over a year ago. The Bangladesh Taka has fallen from 120 to the pound to 95.5 in the year to September 2016. The Turkish Lira has also fallen from a high of 4.70 in September 2015 to 3.78 in September 2016. These shifts alone will push up UK cost of clothing from these supplier countries.