Inflation rises rapidly without warning

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UK Inflation rises rapidly as the Consumer Price Index published today shows. CPI moved upward to 1% year on year from the August year on year figure of 0.6%. There are two main reasons underlying the upward trend. First, clothing prices have increased significantly after a period of flat-lining or decline. Second, transport costs are moving up owing to a decline in the GB pound against the US dollar impacting oil prices. Transport is the more worrying trend as this feeds into all consumer goods. Suppliers and retailers will want to pass on these costs to maintain their own profit margins.

Inflationary pressure

These inflationary pressures are likely to remain as the UK economy enters 2017. There is likely to be a call for increases in wage rates particularly by those in sectors where wages have been stagnant since the financial crash in 2008. Christmas may be more expensive for consumers this year. It might be time to reach for those personal flotation devices like the money you keep under the mattress to get those presents this year.

outerwear
Photograph by Joe Parks

Women’s outerwear contributed price rises of 6.0% between August and September 2016, compared with a rise of just 3.3% a year ago. This is much higher than usual and it is not known how much is directly attributable to Brexit and the depreciation of sterling. What is clearer is that the depreciation in sterling is likely to increase the cost of importing goods. It is also now more expensive than a year ago to outsource production which may have a positive effect on UK manufacturing.

Figure 1 Year on Year Change in Consumer price Index by Category

figure-1-contributions-to-the-cpi-12-month-rate-september-2015-and-september-2016

Source: CSO

Conclusions

It will be interesting to observe the interplay between inflation and exchange rates in the coming months. This will determine the impact on industry cost structures in the year ahead. The balancing act of how these changes impact on the economy as a whole will become clearer. Claims that the lower exchange rate will help exports have to be balanced against claims that input costs rise as imported goods become more expensive. A critical marker will be the impact on consumer spending. If consumer confidence declines then so too will economic growth fueled by that spending. Higher inflation will influence delayed expenditure on higher priced goods and less disposable income for discretionary goods such as restaurants, hotels, recreation and culture as well as some clothing categories.

 

 

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